LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$45
Said $4.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“on the high end I feel like Lucid could be roughly around that $4.50 range”@ 7:16 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker provides explicit year-end 2024 bull and bear scenarios for LCID. The bull case of ~$4.50 requires rate cuts, 9,000 deliveries met, and a successful Gravity launch. The bear case of $1.60-$1.80 reflects continued dilution, demand weakness, and a broader market pullback. The speaker notes the market is currently valuing Lucid more like Ferrari (low-volume, high-margin PS ratio) than Tesla, meaning production ramp-ups won't necessarily increase the stock price as expected.
Key arguments
- Market assigns Ferrari-like PS multiple to Lucid (current 9.3x, future 6.8x) — production ramp won't automatically boost stock
- Dilution to continue until profitability (~2027-2028 with midsize SUV) — major headwind for stock
- Rate cut probability at 59.5% for September — key bull trigger
- 9,000 deliveries by year-end and Gravity launch are the two primary bull catalysts
- Broad money market shift (~$6T sitting idle) has not yet occurred — could be the game changer
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Retail targets of $10-$25 by year-end are unrealistic — even bull case is modest at $4.50
- A broader market pullback combined with demand weakness could send LCID to all-time lows
The call
- Date said
- Jun 23, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $25.60
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- +18.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 24% progress toward target $45. Price: $30.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 24% progress toward target $45. Price: $30.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.