BTC bearish call by Stock Moe

BTCBearunverifiable

“So if the 10-year goes back above 5%, crypto is in XRP, Bitcoin, all deep, deep, deep, deep trouble.”

Thesis at the time

Mixed

Stock Moe reviews multiple Fed hiking cycles and finds Bitcoin's reaction has been inconsistent, sometimes rising and sometimes falling after the first hike. He explicitly declines to give a rate-based price prediction but warns that a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% would be very bad for Bitcoin.

Key arguments

In the 2015-2018 hiking cycle Bitcoin rose after the first hike, but in the 2022-2023 cycle it fell
Bitcoin's correlation to global money supply has broken down, falling from 0.90 to about 0.59
A strong dollar (DXY breaking 100) is historically a headwind for crypto

Counter-arguments acknowledged

In five of six historical stop-and-go rate cycles, risk assets were fine in the first 12 months before breaking in year two

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

Speaker acknowledges uncertainty about market direction ('Up, down, sideways')
Admits 'history can't lead us exactly down the path because this is a very unique situation'
Uncertainty about whether Fed is truly restrictive ('Barely. Maybe not. We don't know')
Markets are pricing in two more hikes but speaker believes only one more likely
Speaker states personal position ('I told you I wasn't selling anything') but this is not financial advice