LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$19.30
Said $1.93· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if it does break below that 217, anticipate a $1.93 to be that next saving grace. And possibly that's where I might do some additional buys between that $180 and $1.90 range.”@ 9:37 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishThe stock is down sharply post-earnings with institutions (not just shorts) doing most of the selling. The CEO's awkward Bloomberg interview full of excuses and inability to answer the dilution question was negative. Most concerning is Uber CEO's statement that they may also partner with Tesla for autonomous vehicles, undermining LCID's key Uber partnership narrative.
Key arguments
- Uber CEO explicitly stated Tesla could be a partner — directly undermines Lucid's marquee Uber deal catalyst
- Mark's Bloomberg interview was evasive and awkward — refused to answer dilution question
- Institutions selling on the darkpool — not shorts doing the damage today
- Dilution expected Q3/Q4 — Mark refused to give timeline confirming this
- Analyst ratings now polarized but mostly $1-$3 range with BofA and Baird lowering
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid's convertible note buyback saved $116M in dilution and extended maturity to 2030
- 43% of options in neutral territory — not strongly directional
The call
- Date said
- Aug 6, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.85
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $17.66
- Return
- +19.2%
- Notes
- Target ≤$19.3 reached on 2025-09-02. Price: $17.66. Return: +19.2%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$19.3 reached on 2025-09-02. Price: $17.66. Return: +19.2%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.