TSLABullexpired
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$5,000
“my personal price Target midterm is 5,000”@ 1:05 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishBoth shareholder votes are very likely to pass, unleashing significant short-term upside; long-term Tesla is the greatest stock market opportunity with a $5,000 mid-term price target driven by FSD, Optimus, and EV margin recovery.
Key arguments
- Model predicts 77% yes on compensation, 60% yes on Texas.
- Retail held 44% of shares and 90% voting yes per Elon tweet.
- Institutional investors in Texas vote follow board recommendation - higher passage rate.
- Yes votes unleash short-term upside via short covering and overhang removal.
- Long-term price target is $5,000 midterm driven by FSD/Optimus/EV.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If vote fails, stock could drop below $100 short-term and kill AI/Optimus thesis.
- Out-of-the-money call options would lose all value on a no vote.
The call
- Date said
- Jun 11, 2024
- Timeframe
- midterm
- Price at prediction
- $170.66
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- +134.8%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Stated as his personal price target with conviction.