TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I'm thinking at least at least 200,000 by 2040.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe host highlights Morgan Stanley raising its Tesla bull-case price target to $840 (from $820) on the strength of an autonomous Tesla Semi trucking opportunity, while arguing the bank is being far too conservative in its unit and revenue assumptions. He believes the semi business alone justifies a much larger increase to the bull case than the $20 Morgan Stanley applied, and separately expects Tesla's semi fleet to scale well beyond the 82,000-unit figure Morgan Stanley used in its model.
Key arguments
- Morgan Stanley's autonomous trucking model shows large TAM ($500B-$1.1T by 2041) and strong ROI (~20% net cost savings, 6-8x more profitable than human-driven fleets).
- Host believes Morgan Stanley's assumption of only 82,000 semis on the road by 2040 is overly conservative given Tesla's planned 50,000-unit annual manufacturing capacity.
- Tesla Semi expansion into Europe (2027 delivery start) adds another growth vector for the stock's bull thesis.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Morgan Stanley maintains an equal-weight rating and $400 base-case price target, well below the bull case.
- Most other Wall Street analysts are not yet even including autonomous trucking or Cyber Cab optionality in their models, reflecting uncertainty.
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Morgan Stanley maintains an equal weight rating with a $400 base case price target, not a buy recommendation
- The $840 price target is a bull case scenario, not the base case
- Autonomous trucking projections are speculative and dependent on regulatory approval and market adoption
- The analysis assumes Tesla reaches 82,000 semis on road by 2030, which the creator suggests may be conservative
- Revenue assumptions based on subscription fees of $0.85-$1.00 per mile are not guaranteed
The call
- Date said
- Sep 11, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2040
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2040
- Price at prediction
- $363.56
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear directional conviction that Tesla will vastly outperform Morgan Stanley's conservative semi deployment estimate, though this is a unit count (robotrucks/semis) rather than a stock price target.
Source
Morgan Stanley Increases Tesla PT To $840 (BULL CASE)
Said on Sep 11, 2026Open on YouTube ↗