TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$847
“My fair future value in December is 847.”@ 12:29 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishDCF-based fair future value is materially above current price, with robo-taxi scaling in 2026 and Optimus ramp in 2028 acting as forcing functions for major repricing.
Key arguments
- Base-case robo-taxi fleet reaches 40,000 units in 2026, 100M by 2037 with 174B in additional EBITDA by 2030.
- Optimus scales to 100,000 units in 2028 and 1 million by 2030, adding high free-cash-flow business.
- Free cash flow reaches 7B in 2026, 100B in 2029, 1T in 2032 in base case.
- FSD v14 coming and v15 likely Q1-Q2 2026, close to perfect operation.
- 73% intrinsic upside today based on Sept fair future value of $747 vs $430 market price.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If robo-taxi is delayed by a year, the whole model shifts by a year.
- Bear case assumes everything goes wrong but model still looks okay.
- Each city requires separate regulatory approval, slowing the ramp.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 26, 2025
- Timeframe
- December 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $440.40
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +2.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 2% progress toward target $847. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 2% progress toward target $847. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host explicitly labels this fair future value, not a price target, and says stock probably will not reach 847 this year.