LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“you could see anywhere from like I said a 20 to 60% run on average roughly 40”@ 1:59 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishFor the first time in its trading history since 2021, Lucid has closed four consecutive weeks in the green. When combined with closing above the 50-day moving average for two consecutive days — a historically rare event with only five prior occurrences — the stock has typically rallied 25-60% (averaging ~40%). Institutional buying across two quarters and bullish options reinforce the case.
Key arguments
- First ever four-consecutive-week green close in Lucid's entire public trading history since 2021
- Only 5-6 instances of closing above the 50-day MA for two consecutive days; each resulted in 25-60% average rally
- Institutions have been net buyers for two consecutive quarters per 13F filings
- Gravity SUV demand and upcoming partnerships could sustain momentum above $3
- Stock may never revisit the $1.80-1.93 all-time low range again
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid has faked out similar setups before and then dwindled lower
- Recent dilution killed previous breakout momentum
The call
- Date said
- Dec 14, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $25.80
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.