TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$800
“I'm pretty confident, like extremely confident actually, that Tesla will be over 800 by end of 2027.”@ 4:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker is extremely confident Tesla will be over $800 by end of 2027 and sees significant long-term upside potential. However, he warns of a specific tail risk from a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger that could negatively impact LEAP options holders.
Key arguments
- Long-term forcing functions will drive Tesla much higher than current levels
- LEAP options provide significant leverage when Tesla drops too much
- Tesla has strong fundamentals despite potential short-term market volatility
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 10-15% chance of SpaceX-Tesla merger this year could wipe out out-of-the-money LEAP options
- Tesla could drop below $300 due to market crash or geopolitical tensions
- Robotaxi promise disappointment could cause additional downside
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Merger probability estimated at low double-digit percent (10-15%) this year
- Regulatory approval typically takes 12-24 months, making near-term merger unlikely
- Uncertainty about which company would acquire the other in a merger scenario
- Author acknowledges this is speculation and invites disagreement in comments
- Long-term Tesla price target (above $800 by end of 2027) stated as 'not a guarantee'
- Analysis focuses on options contract treatment in merger scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes
The call
- Date said
- Mar 24, 2026
- Timeframe
- by end of 2027
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $383.03
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$421.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker uses 'extremely confident' language and personal conviction