Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30.50
Said $3.05· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“with it at $284 it is trading right below this S1 so $2.90 which it did bounce off of that for the high that's going to be the next strong Target followed by 305”@ 5:30 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishCantor Fitzgerald updated its EPS estimate for 2024 to -$0.94, the most bullish on the Street vs. consensus of -$1.11, representing 20% year-over-year improvement. The previous time Lucid had this low an options volume on back-to-back days, it went on a 10%+ green-day streak — a historical pattern the speaker is watching. Shorts are returning 373K shares and Lucid is outperforming both Tesla and Rivian today, showing relative strength. The speaker believes the stock is range-bound between 50-day and 100/200-day MAs until EV policy clarity emerges.
Key arguments
- Cantor Fitzgerald most bullish EPS forecast: -$0.94 vs consensus -$1.11, 20% YoY improvement
- Historically low options volume on back-to-back days preceded a 10%+ green-day run previously
- Shorts returning 373K shares while LCID is green vs. Tesla and Rivian being red — shows relative strength
- Shorts manipulated stock below $3 near options expiry to keep 122K call contracts worthless — expected
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Range-bound between 50-day and 100/200-day MAs until EV policy clarity
- No actual news from Lucid — purely technical/market-structure driven day
The call
- Date said
- Jan 24, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $27.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $32.60
- Return
- +16.9%
- Notes
- Target ≥$30.5 reached on 2025-02-13. Price: $32.60. Return: +16.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≥$30.5 reached on 2025-02-13. Price: $32.60. Return: +16.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.