TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyTarget Price
$620
“Give that only 100p. That's a that's a stock price of 620 bucks per share.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe video builds a detailed financial model estimating Tesla's Cybercab robotaxi fleet revenue, margins, and earnings from 2026 through 2035, arguing that the business alone could justify a much higher stock price than today's. The creator says he is 'all in' on Tesla because the market has not yet priced in the scale of robotaxi profits he projects for the 2030s.
Key arguments
- Cybercab fleet economics show 70%+ margins as fleet size scales from 1,000 vehicles in 2026 to millions by 2035
- Cost per mile is projected to fall as supply and adoption increase, boosting net earnings dramatically
- Compares Tesla's current situation to Nvidia in 2016, arguing today's high PE will look cheap in hindsight if growth materializes
- Believes current stock price only partially reflects robotaxi potential, not the multi-billion dollar earnings scale he models for 2030+
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Current PE of over 350 is already elevated and hard to justify with 2026 earnings alone
- Fleet scale-up 'depends on regulation and laws and all that kind of stuff'
- Acknowledges this is speculation: 'We don't know how to evaluate this thing at that time'
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator acknowledges some robo taxi value is already priced in (PE over 350)
- Projections extend to 2035 with significant scaling assumptions
- Model assumes Tesla controls and operates all Cybercabs rather than selling them
- Actual deployment timeline and regulatory approval uncertain
- Comparison to Uber/Lyft pricing assumes 5-6x cost reduction advantage
The call
- Date said
- Sep 2, 2026
- Timeframe
- 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Price at prediction
- $356.09
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$241.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price and year are given, but the figure depends entirely on the speaker's own assumed fleet size and PE multiple, and he repeatedly acknowledges the model is speculative.
Source
Tesla CYBERCAB Robotaxi: Valuation & Worth (+ Stock Price)
Said on Sep 2, 2026Open on YouTube ↗