TSLABullmiss
Michael TylerTarget Price
$500
“I do actually think that could happen next week. Yeah, I do think we could have quite an aggressive rally to the upside.”@ 9:28 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is positioned for explosive growth driven by robo taxi regulatory approvals and favorable market conditions. The key differentiator between Tesla being a $500 stock versus $1,500+ stock by end of 2026 is legislative approval for robo taxi expansion.
Key arguments
- Elon meeting with senators will accelerate regulatory approvals for robo taxi
- Technology is ready, only legislative barriers remain for robo taxi scaling
- Strong demand evidenced by crowds at showrooms in China and Korea
- Short squeeze potential above $500 with 76.39 million shares sold short
- Favorable CPI and Supreme Court ruling catalysts expected next week
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Regulatory approval timeline remains uncertain
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Acknowledges California incentive 'will not double Tesla's stock'
- Regulatory approval remains uncertain and is described as 'the biggest barrier' to expansion
- Timeline for Robo Taxi monetization pushed to 2026
- Success dependent on legislative approval which is not guaranteed
The call
- Date said
- Jan 10, 2026
- Timeframe
- next week
- Deadline
- Jan 17, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $445.01
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $437.50
- Return
- -1.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $437.50.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $500. Price: $437.50.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses definitive language 'I do actually think' and 'I do think' with specific timeframe