LCIDBearexpired
Investment Managers_AAMTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$2.50
Said $0.25· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“The stock is overvalued by 6,520%. With a fair value of just 25.”@ 0:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishLucid stock is massively overvalued; fair value is $0.25 per share, with the sell zone above $2.32 and the buy zone below $0.25 contingent on major fundamental improvement.
Key arguments
- Claimed fair value is $0.25 per share versus $2.32 current price.
- Weak EV demand and slow deliveries.
- Investors worry about cash burn and competition.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Creator personally owns a Lucid Air and is impressed with quality.
- Lucid has exciting growth prospects with new models and partnerships.
The call
- Date said
- May 7, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22.50
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $6.05
- Return
- +73.1%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $6.05.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $6.05.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Creator cites only vague 'trusted fair value estimates' without showing calculations; $0.25 claim is extreme and not substantiated in the transcript.