TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$520
“So, my price target of 520. We might see it by end of the year. I think 520 is an absolutely possible price target.”@ 14:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla hit an all-time high of 490 on December 17 before a two-day roller coaster on Oracle fears. Jo sees Tesla reaching his 520 price target by end of year if the NASDAQ rallies another 5% given Tesla's beta of 2, with more robotaxi catalysts likely in the next four weeks.
Key arguments
- Tesla hit all-time high of 490 on December 17, 2025
- Tesla has a beta of 2 versus NASDAQ
- Jo predicts more robotaxi catalysts in the next four weeks
- If NASDAQ rallies another 5%, Tesla could hit 520 with no additional catalysts
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Oracle AI trade fears dragged Tesla down from 490 to 468 briefly
The call
- Date said
- Dec 18, 2025
- Timeframe
- by end of the year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $483.37
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- -7.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $520. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $520. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Jo frames it as contingent on NASDAQ rallying another 5%, calling it 'absolutely possible' rather than guaranteed.