TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I think the stock's going to way higher than what it is now right before a merger happens.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe narrator is strongly bullish on Tesla, citing Ron Baron's repeated public calls that 'the time to buy Tesla stock is now,' rapid FSD adoption, growing market share, and long wait times for vehicles worldwide. He also believes a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger would be a catalyst that pushes the stock significantly higher, and says he personally holds over 1,600 shares and intends to buy more.
Key arguments
- Ron Baron highlighted FSD's real-world capability (a personal story about the car navigating streets and stopping for ducks) as evidence of Tesla's technological edge.
- Tesla's market share is reportedly increasing globally, with wait times of 3-6 months in various regions signaling strong demand.
- FSD take rate is rising, with 55% of new buyers opting for self-driving, which the narrator believes will keep growing.
- A potential Tesla-SpaceX merger could reduce costs for SpaceX and give Tesla access to AI compute, benefiting shareholders long-term.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The narrator acknowledges 'brand damage' concerns tied to Elon Musk's public persona, though he argues it hasn't hurt sales.
- He admits a Tesla-SpaceX merger 'may never happen.'
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator explicitly states 'not financial advice' multiple times
- Creator acknowledges frustration for investors who bought at 2021 peaks
- Creator frames this as a 'long game' requiring patience
- Creator notes he is 'not going to speculate' on specific outcomes
- Historical performance (2015-2020) does not guarantee future results
The call
- Date said
- Sep 16, 2026
- Timeframe
- before a Tesla-SpaceX merger happens
- Price at prediction
- $356.58
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
The speaker shows personal conviction (owns 1,600+ shares, plans to buy more) and certainty language ('going to'), but the prediction is explicitly conditional on an unconfirmed merger and he hedges with 'this may never happen.'
Source
Ron Baron Just SAID IT Again With Tesla Stock...
Said on Sep 16, 2026Open on YouTube ↗