LCIDBullexpired
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$43.90
Said $4.39· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“the latest Morning Star report does show the fair market value for Lucid being $4.39”@ 7:08 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedShorts aggressively doubled down with 4.57M shares added net (approximately 80% of volume was short-related), dropping the stock 2.46% on no news. The speaker attributes this to possible PCE data reaction or unconfirmed insider information. Morningstar's fair value of $4.39 suggests meaningful upside, and Lucid's graphite supply agreement for battery supply chains shows forward planning. Options call consensus is above $4 next week while puts signal sub-$3 - a wide divergence reflecting high uncertainty.
Key arguments
- Shorts added 4.57M shares net - approximately 80% of total volume was short-driven
- No news or catalyst justifies the selloff - possible PCE data reaction or unknown information
- PCE core came in at 2.6% vs 2.5% forecast - slightly hotter than expected
- Morningstar fair value at $4.39 vs current ~$3.37 implies significant upside
- Graphite One supply agreement for batteries shows preparation for future production ramp
- Short interest at 27.5%, high utilization 91.67%, very overextended
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Put options consensus signals sub-$3 risk
- Rate cut probability remains relatively low at 11.9% for 50bps
The call
- Date said
- Jul 26, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $33.80
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $7.06
- Return
- -79.1%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $7.05.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $7.05.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.