TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$1,000
“in the next 12 to 18 months we could hit a thousand just tactically.”@ 0:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla could plausibly reach $1,000 per share within 12-18 months on a tactical basis, supporting his broader capital-ownership thesis.
Key arguments
- Capital owners will benefit while workers are displaced by robots/AI in the next five years.
- Tactical upside to $1,000 for Tesla is realistic within 12-18 months.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Acknowledges such a move may not be rational.
The call
- Date said
- Dec 3, 2024
- Timeframe
- next 12-18 months
- Deadline
- Jun 3, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $351.42
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $417.26
- Return
- +18.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 10% progress toward target $1000. Price: $417.26.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 10% progress toward target $1000. Price: $417.26.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Framed as 'could' and tactical, not a firm prediction.