TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$380
“I don't want to jinx it, but 380 next week to be cautious with these things, but I think there's a lot of back in our wins to 380.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishJo believes Tesla is dramatically undervalued heading into the Cybercab commercial launch in Austin, citing years of tracked FSD/robotaxi progress, regulatory approvals in states like Nevada, and Waymo's inferior cost structure. He is running a highly leveraged short-put options strategy into the launch event while acknowledging macro risks (bonds, Iran, Fed) could disrupt the trade.
Key arguments
- Cybercab commercial launch is confirmed for September 3rd in Austin after years of tracked progress
- Tesla applied for and received approval for 5,000 robotaxis in Nevada versus Waymo's 1,000, showing Waymo cannot scale
- Waymo's hardware costs ~$20,000-$55,000 more per car than Tesla's, giving Tesla a durable cost advantage
- Stock is currently just closing a gap from the pre-earnings drop, not yet pricing in the launch catalyst
- Long-term, robotaxi is described as the biggest cash cow once it scales and will re-rate the stock once financials reflect it
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Macro risks including rising bond yields, Japanese carry trade unwind, Iran sanctions, and Nvidia earnings could hurt the trade
- The launch event could be a 'sell the news' event if the stock runs too far (e.g., to 420) beforehand
- By ~2030 autonomy could be commoditized and Chinese makers like BYD/Xpeng may erode Tesla's hardware cost advantage
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator acknowledges past prediction error on May Cybercab launch timing
- Fair value model described as 'midpoint' with range implied but not fully detailed
- Valuation model update promised for later in the week, suggesting current analysis is preliminary
- Creator notes previous incorrect timing on Q2 earnings impact
The call
- Date said
- Aug 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- next week
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$1.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific short-term price target tied to gap-fill dynamics, with fairly confident phrasing but self-imposed caution.
Source
10 Days To Cybercab Launch - My Tesla Stock Game Plan
Said on Aug 23, 2026Open on YouTube ↗