LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$20
Said $2· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“it does look as though that it is wanting to move to the next leg lower which would be ultimately sub $2 as I brought up based on the Elliot wave technicals”@ 6:33 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishInstitutions are selling LCID not buying on the last day of Q2 despite expected rebalancing, with shorts adding 5.97M shares to approach all-time highs. Chinese EV makers are lowering guidance, Tesla Q2 expected to disappoint, and LCID is below all key moving averages with the next downside target around sub-$2 based on Elliott wave technicals.
Key arguments
- All three secondary market transactions on last day of Q2 are sells — no institutional rebalancing buying
- Shorts at 399.39M shares (32.39% of float), near all-time highs
- Chinese EV makers lowering guidance for 2025 — sector-wide demand concerns
- Deutsche Bank sees Tesla Q2 as a miss — will trickle to other EVs
- LCID below all key moving averages (50, 100, 200-day), Elliott wave targeting sub-$2
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Rate cut signals from Morgan Stanley and Fed speakers theoretically bullish for rate-sensitive EVs
- Q2 rebalancing could come Monday or Tuesday instead
The call
- Date said
- Jun 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $19.80
- Return
- +6.2%
- Notes
- Target ≤$20 reached on 2025-08-29. Price: $19.80. Return: +6.2%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$20 reached on 2025-08-29. Price: $19.80. Return: +6.2%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.