BTCBullunverifiable
Stock Moe“I have been telling you, I expect winter to be over in October to November.”
Thesis at the time
BullishStock Moe examined five prior death-cross events to argue the current weekly death cross is a weak bearish signal (40% historical hit rate for marking bottoms) compared to the 200-day reclaim pattern, which has a 3-for-3 record of marking major cycle lows. He believes crypto winter is likely thawing rather than definitively over, expecting a bottom before year-end.
Key arguments
- Weekly death cross has only a 40% historical hit rate for marking bottoms across 5 prior instances
- 200-day moving average reclaim after a long stretch below has a 3-for-3 record of marking major cycle lows
- This drawdown (~38% from highs) has been shallower than 2018 (84%) and 2022 (78%) cycles, suggesting a maturing/weaker bear
- SEC and CFTC are becoming more crypto-friendly which should help price action
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The death cross has failed as a bottom signal 60% of the time historically, with big declines following in 3 of 5 cases
- Volumes are weak, matching September 2023 levels
- Timing of the actual bottom is disputed among analysts
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Content is for entertainment only
- Creator acknowledges cherry-picking bias in death cross analysis
- Historical comparisons (2018, 2022) used but market conditions differ
- Timing prediction (October-November) is speculative
- Creator notes XRP will 'drop more' before runs, indicating volatility expectations
The call
- Date said
- Sep 1, 2026
- Timeframe
- October to November
- Deadline
- Nov 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $78,849.02
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Clear directional call with a specific timeframe, but no exact price target and some hedging elsewhere in the video.