LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“last time that did occur Lucid went on a back-to-back 10% Green Day so that would be pretty epic if lucid does go based on that”@ 4:53 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTrump's announcement of 15% corporate tax for US-made products benefits Lucid's Arizona manufacturing more than the loss of the $7,500 EV credit would hurt it. The speaker is skeptical that Saudi Arabia's $600B US investment pledge will directly benefit Lucid, advising against buying on that basis. Abnormally low options dollar volume (under $1M — last seen December 5, 2024) preceded a back-to-back 10% green-day run previously, suggesting a similar setup is forming. Shorts increasing 4.21M shares during power hour is read as a sign of shorts being worried about upside.
Key arguments
- 15% US manufacturing corporate tax rate could more than compensate for loss of $7,500 EV credit
- Back-to-back sub-$1M options dollar volume historically preceded consecutive 10%+ green days
- Shorts aggressively adding 4.21M during power hour signals they're worried about a breakout
- Options consensus above $3 for this week, reflecting immediate upside bias
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Saudi $600B investment unlikely to benefit Lucid directly — investing in line with Trump's anti-EV ideology
- Low volume and algorithmic trading are primary drivers, not organic institutional buying
The call
- Date said
- Jan 23, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $27.20
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.