LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$12.42
“the next big thing is going to be 11 or 1242, and that's that 50-day moving average. Generally, that's a massive deal for Lucid. Every time it breaks above that or below it, usually results in like a 30% swing.”@ 7:47 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishLucid surges 15.2% on the Rockwell Automation partnership announcement supporting the Saudi AMP2 plant. The speaker interprets the partnership as potentially pulling the AMP2 full-capacity timeline forward from 2028-2029 to possibly 2027, which would dramatically reduce shipping costs for Europe and Canada markets. At all-time high short interest (36.52%, 47.61M shares), a cost-to-borrow spike to 102%, and weaker shorts potentially closing positions, the setup for a squeeze is improving. The stock needs to close above $11.45 to maintain momentum toward the 50-day MA at $12.42.
Key arguments
- Rockwell Automation ($45.4B company) partnership signals serious commitment to AMP2 excellence
- Market interprets partnership as potentially pulling AMP2 timeline from 2028-2029 to 2027
- All-time high short interest at 36.52%, 47.61M shares — squeeze risk elevated
- Cost-to-borrow jumped from ~17% to 102% — weaker shorts being squeezed out
- Trump's 'stock market will double' statement helps speculative stocks
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- No official PR from Lucid clarifying what the Rockwell partnership means for timelines
- Shorts still increasing 52K shares — not covering broadly yet
The call
- Date said
- Jan 21, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $11.47
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $7.11
- Return
- -38.0%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $12.42. Price: $7.11.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $12.42. Price: $7.11.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.