LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$22.10
Said $2.21· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do feel in the early part of the week you will see it briefly below this 221”@ 11:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedLucid has dropped 14% in 5 days on extraordinary volume (259M and 262M shares in consecutive days) with no news, suggesting dilution via the active S-3 shelf offering or a major institution selling. The speaker sees a near-term dip below $2.21 possible but expects a recovery and calls current prices a buying opportunity for long-term believers. A June 7th studio event could be the trigger for a catalyst.
Key arguments
- Extraordinary volume (259M+ shares/day) without news strongly suggests dilution or major institution selling
- Active S-3 shelf offering from 2023 allows dilution without immediate disclosure
- Breaking below 50-day MA historically results in a ~30% pullback, implying ~$2 support
- June 7th Lucid Studio event could trigger Gravity test drive announcements
- Negative delta of -457K shares shows options market mechanics are adding selling pressure
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Good data points or China deal this week could trigger recovery to S1–S2 range
- Stock is excessively oversold — strong buyers could emerge at current levels
The call
- Date said
- Jun 1, 2025
- Deadline
- Jun 4, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $22
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $22
- Return
- 0.0%
- Notes
- Target ≤$22.1 reached on 2025-06-02. Price: $22.00. Return: 0.0%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$22.1 reached on 2025-06-02. Price: $22.00. Return: 0.0%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.