LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$20
Said $2· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I do feel that it will be closing somewhere in between this S2 and this S3, probably around that $2 range in all fairness.”@ 7:31 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishAfter breaking below the 50-day moving average following earnings, LCID faces a technical week with limited catalysts and the Aug 18 reverse stock split shareholder meeting creating negative sentiment pressure. The speaker expects shorts to exploit the fear heading into the meeting and anticipates LCID closing near the $2 range absent positive catalysts.
Key arguments
- Stock broke below 50-day moving average post-earnings — historically leads to 30% swing
- Aug 18 shareholder meeting for reverse stock split vote will increase negative sentiment
- Shorts have not let up — 400M shares shorted, 31.91% of float
- Q3 gravity deliveries expected to ramp but Lucid needs to execute to justify the stock
- Tax credit ($7,500 lease) eliminating in Q4 — Lucid must market aggressively now
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- September rate cut now near 100% probability — positive for growth stocks
- Stochastic RSI very oversold — good news could cause sharp reversal
The call
- Date said
- Aug 10, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 15, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $21.90
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $21.80
- Return
- +0.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 5% progress toward target $20. Price: $21.80.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 5% progress toward target $20. Price: $21.80.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.