LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$8.21
“Right now though, with it at 739, it is trading between this pivot and this S1. So, I am looking at the 4-hour, so this is kind of relatively strong support and resistance points. So, 711 is going to be a strong support, and in fact, it kind of that was the bottom for today. So, 712 was the the low. So, we know at least this is a good support level. In theory, the next strong target is going to be 821.”@ 5:42 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
NeutralUber's 13G at 11.52% of Lucid's float — real signal that Uber sees value — triggered a 9.9% pop off the $6.82 support that the host had called. Short interest still 27.3% of float (46.35M shares) even with 1.2M shares of cover today. Next upside level $8.21; failure to hold $7.11 resumes the downtrend. The host is explicit that the recovery is temporary absent operational news from Lucid.
Key arguments
- Uber 13G disclosure: 11.52% of Lucid float (~as of Feb 18, likely slightly lower post-dilution)
- Prior $6.82 bounce prediction validated — today's low was $7.12
- Option volume blowing out the past week; today will top $10M premium (first time since March 19)
- Institutional buying on 'ask' side — bought on disclosure
- Short cover of 1.2M shares today — but short interest still ~27.3% of float → squeeze setup intact
- Cost-to-borrow dropped to 9.96% annual — short pressure easing
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Uber 13G disclosure changes nothing operationally — relief rally, not fundamental shift
- Recovery explicitly 'temporary unless Lucid puts out operational news'
- Bears still anchoring sub-$6.50
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Rally is disclosure-driven, not operational — 'temporary unless operational news drops'
- Shorts still 46.35M shares of float — the squeeze is potential, not confirmed
- Bears still targeting sub-$6.50
The call
- Date said
- Apr 21, 2026
- Timeframe
- near-term technical (conditional on momentum holding)
- Deadline
- May 31, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $6.75
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $5.68
- Return
- -15.8%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $8.21. Price: $5.68.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $8.21. Price: $5.68.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
'In theory the next strong target is 821' — explicit but qualified. Host himself says the rally is 'temporary unless operational news', undermining conviction.