LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“last time that this kind of scenario did happen Lucid I think had like a 15% pop just in one day alone”
Thesis at the time
BullishLabor Day week preview with two major Lucid catalysts: Tech & Manufacturing Day (Sept 10) where speaker expects Gravity reservation unveiling, and Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference (Sept 12). Shorts are extremely overextended at 249.99M shares with only 350K shares available to borrow (briefly 150K), suggesting a 15%+ pop is possible if a catalyst hits. Elliott Wave technicals point toward higher highs.
Key arguments
- Sept 10 Tech Day expected to include Gravity reservation announcement
- Shorts have only 350K shares available to borrow with 249.99M already shorted
- Last time borrow supply was this low, Lucid popped 15% in one day
- Morgan Stanley rating of $3 by Adam Jonas looks increasingly wrong as stock outperforms
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 25bp rate cut already priced in, real question is whether 50bp is on table
- Technical week (Mon-Wed) could see volatility before macro data Thursday-Friday
The call
- Date said
- Sep 1, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $40.20
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.