TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyTarget Price
$1,400
“So a 50p I think is more than reasonable here is about a valuation of $4.8 trillion or a stock price of $1,400 bucks per share just from robo taxis alone.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe YouTuber reacts to a JP Morgan note projecting $320 billion in Tesla robotaxi revenue by 2035, mostly from a company-owned fleet rather than a shared owner network. He builds his own valuation model off that revenue figure, projecting a much higher stock price for Tesla by 2035 if the robotaxi business scales as JP Morgan describes.
Key arguments
- JP Morgan is starting to price in Tesla's robotaxi potential, which the speaker sees as a sign analysts are waking up to the opportunity
- Applying a 30% operating margin and 50x multiple to JP Morgan's $320B 2035 robotaxi revenue estimate implies a ~$4.8 trillion valuation, or about $1,400/share from robotaxis alone
- Adding other business lines like energy, Optimus, and core auto could push the valuation even higher
- The speaker disagrees with JP Morgan's assumption that the robotaxi business will be capital heavy and thinks Tesla will still sell cyber cabs directly to consumers
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Upside hinges on rapid cyber cab production scaling, falling operating costs, and widespread unsupervised FSD approvals
- If production or regulation slips, the $320 billion revenue figure compresses meaningfully
- JP Morgan frames the robotaxi business as capital heavy, which could reduce margins versus the speaker's more optimistic view
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Regulatory uncertainty around autonomous vehicle deployment and insurance frameworks
- Unclear how Tesla will balance owned-and-operated fleet versus customer-owned network models
- Depends on successful deployment of unsupervised Full Self-Driving technology
- Assumes NHTSA approval and regulatory clarity on autonomous mobility services
- Long-term projection (2035) carries substantial execution risk
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2035
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Price at prediction
- $364.27
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$1,021.10 below target
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Specific price and timeframe give it Tier 1 specificity, but the calculation rests on JP Morgan's assumed revenue figure and the speaker hedges with 'I think' multiple times throughout the derivation.
Source
JP Morgan Drops Tesla Robotaxi BOMBSHELL To Investors
Said on Sep 22, 2026Open on YouTube ↗