LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$41.40
Said $4.14· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if the data does come in better than anticipated then you could see possibly that $4 range uh 414 as uh fairly possible”@ 8:00 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker expects Lucid's Q4 production/delivery numbers to come out this week (historically January 11th, now likely shifted one day), anticipating Lucid will hit its 9,000 target given Q3 deliveries already at 7,142. A beat could drive the stock toward $3.49-$4.14, while shorts would likely pounce on any miss. The speaker sees Lucid as generally ready to move higher based on technicals.
Key arguments
- Historical Q4 release on January 11th — logical expectation for this week
- Q4 deliveries only need ~1,858 more to hit 9,000 target, and November was their best delivery month
- Options consensus for $4 range by end of week shows bullish market positioning
- Algorithmic super trend is on Lucid's side keeping it above $3.01 floor
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts increasing 2.68M shares going into the week — very active bearish pressure
- Multiple macro data points (JOLTS, FOMC minutes, non-farm payroll) could cause volatility
The call
- Date said
- Jan 5, 2025
- Deadline
- Jan 10, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $33.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $30.20
- Return
- -9.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $41.4. Price: $30.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $41.4. Price: $30.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.