TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$600
“Tesla could easily you know get close to 600.”@ 4:19 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla is set up for a bullish 2025 driven by macro tailwinds in the first half, stacked fundamental catalysts from Optimus, FSD, and robotaxi, and an ultimate long-term trajectory toward around $11,700 by 2030.
Key arguments
- Tesla is roughly 2x beta to NASDAQ, so macro dominates 95% of stock movement.
- Fundstrat macro view suggests the market rallies toward mid-year then sees a Q3 pullback.
- Tesla has many stacked fundamental catalysts that could trigger asymmetric upside on the 5% of days it decouples from market.
- Best strategy is active trading around a core position, covered calls if overvalued short-term, never shorting.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Q3 historically dangerous and a mid-year mini-crash is possible.
- Earnings could produce a 10% drawdown but should not derail the thesis.
The call
- Date said
- Jan 21, 2025
- Timeframe
- first half of 2025
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $424.07
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $317.66
- Return
- -25.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $600. Price: $317.66.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $600. Price: $317.66.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional on Fundstrat macro view; hedged with 'could easily'.