TSLABearmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$300
“Tesla drops below 300, which absolutely could happen by the way, different video, but this can absolutely happen uh in the next couple of months.”@ 9:45 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker is extremely confident Tesla will be over $800 by end of 2027 and sees significant long-term upside potential. However, he warns of a specific tail risk from a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger that could negatively impact LEAP options holders.
Key arguments
- Long-term forcing functions will drive Tesla much higher than current levels
- LEAP options provide significant leverage when Tesla drops too much
- Tesla has strong fundamentals despite potential short-term market volatility
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 10-15% chance of SpaceX-Tesla merger this year could wipe out out-of-the-money LEAP options
- Tesla could drop below $300 due to market crash or geopolitical tensions
- Robotaxi promise disappointment could cause additional downside
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Merger probability estimated at low double-digit percent (10-15%) this year
- Regulatory approval typically takes 12-24 months, making near-term merger unlikely
- Uncertainty about which company would acquire the other in a merger scenario
- Author acknowledges this is speculation and invites disagreement in comments
- Long-term Tesla price target (above $800 by end of 2027) stated as 'not a guarantee'
- Analysis focuses on options contract treatment in merger scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes
The call
- Date said
- Mar 24, 2026
- Timeframe
- in the next couple of months
- Deadline
- May 24, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $383.03
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $417.26
- Return
- -8.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $300. Price: $417.26.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $300. Price: $417.26.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses 'absolutely could happen' twice but frames as possibility not certainty