LCIDBearmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$18.30
Said $1.83· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I feel that there is going to be kind of more of a further pullback and it might even touch this S2 but I feel like this S2 is going to be that Saving Grace and really incentivize a lot of big money to start buying the dip”@ 5:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker predicts a further pullback toward $1.83 in the first half of the week driven by Nvidia earnings uncertainty and weak retail momentum, followed by a bounce as value investors step in. A 59.9% likelihood of a December Fed rate cut would benefit Lucid given the EV sector's rate sensitivity.
Key arguments
- Stock at all-time lows with stochastic RSI oversold — value buying opportunity
- 23.81% of float shorted; shorts have been suppressing breakout attempts
- Rate cut probability at 59.9% for December 18 — positive for EV sector
- Nvidia earnings Thursday and manufacturing data Friday are key macro drivers
- 7,000 put open interest at $2 means market makers may cover ~700K shares on Monday
- Retail investors have been net sellers — no dip buying momentum
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Trump's EV tax credit removal could hurt future midsize sales in 2026
- Lucid's poor PR and lack of Gravity updates damage shareholder sentiment
The call
- Date said
- Nov 17, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $21.40
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $33.10
- Return
- -54.7%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $18.3. Price: $33.10.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $18.3. Price: $33.10.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.