TSLANeutralhit
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$480
“I do not believe that we will go above 480 I will not I don't believe we go through 500 without any very hard catalysts and I do not believe these hard catalysts are coming in the next three months.”@ 8:55 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishTesla is range-bound between $350 and $480 into earnings with long-term DCF at $11,700 by 2030.
Key arguments
- $350 is extremely hard to break to the downside per technicals and Fibonacci.
- $480 is the ceiling without hard catalysts, which are not expected in next three months.
- Q3 is likely window for hard robotaxi catalyst.
- Macro January-up signal supports 6-month bull bias.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Earnings are always a coin flip.
- Hard catalysts may be delayed past Q3.
The call
- Date said
- Jan 29, 2025
- Timeframe
- next three months
- Deadline
- Apr 29, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $389.10
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $292.03
- Return
- -24.9%
- Notes
- Ceiling $480 held through deadline. Final price: $292.03 (-24.9% vs ref).
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Ceiling $480 held through deadline. Final price: $292.03 (-24.9% vs ref).
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Jo frames as firm ceiling given absence of hard catalysts.