LCIDBullunverifiable
Lucid City“I'm putting let's say the 25th 25th to yeah the week of the 21st to the 25th I have a weird feeling it will be there”@ 10:06 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker is generally optimistic for the upcoming week, expecting macro data (unemployment, CPI, PPI) to confirm rate cuts and potentially trigger a large rotation from money markets ($6.42T) into equities. He expects Q3 numbers in early October, predicts a Gravity reveal around October 21-25, and believes if data is positive LCID could reach the $4 range. He identifies October as historically significant for Lucid product launches.
Key arguments
- 53.3% likelihood of 50 basis point cut at November meeting, positive for growth stocks
- $6.42 trillion in money markets ready for rotation into equities
- Gravity reveal expected week of October 21-25 based on historical October pattern
- Q3 numbers expected early October with ~2,100 deliveries anticipated as bullish
- Stocks at 20%+ run historically when LCID breaks above 50-day MA
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Shorts at 30.9% free float are very active and could suppress gains
- Analysts have given 6 negative earnings revisions in past 90 days
The call
- Date said
- Sep 29, 2024
- Deadline
- Oct 25, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $35.30
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.