LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$55
Said $5.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“for February 21st 2025 there was 2,000 purchased at that 550 strike price so for whatever reason Maybe some large entities... some big money out there is clearly seeing a little bit of upside so we'll just have to wait and see um whether that does come to fruition or not because that would be a pretty kickass return on investment in roughly around 3 months from here up until in excess of 550”@ 4:54 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe 'Lucid Ocean' trademark may signal a new vehicle line, and a possible Jaguar technology partnership could bring revenue. Options show an unusual $5.50 strike bet for February 2025, while shorts increasing 2M shares and technical resistance at the ALMA remain bearish headwinds.
Key arguments
- New 'Lucid Ocean' trademark filed November 20, 2024 may indicate new vehicle variant
- Rumored Jaguar partnership could bring licensing revenue
- Unusual options activity: 2,000 contracts purchased at $5.50 strike for February 21, 2025
- 53% of options flow is bullish
- Shorts increasing 1.93M shares, 24.41% of float shorted
- ALMA at $2.28 is key resistance; stock needs to close above it
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Prior partnership rumors with Apple and others have not materialized
- Stock could fall to $1.50 range if market turns bearish
The call
- Date said
- Nov 21, 2024
- Deadline
- Feb 21, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $20.60
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $30.60
- Return
- +48.5%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 29% progress toward target $55. Price: $30.60.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 29% progress toward target $55. Price: $30.60.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.