LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$40
Said $4· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“based on the options the Bulls are anticipating for it to be roughly around that $4 range”@ 4:39 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishThe speaker expects a bullish week for Lucid driven by technically sound setup, short returns of 4.36M on Friday, and Rivian's Thursday earnings as a potential positive catalyst by association. Options bulls targeting $4 this week and $4.50 for earnings week. Production guidance of at least 25,000 and Gravity specifics are the critical deliverables at Q4 earnings.
Key arguments
- Shorts returned 4.36M shares on Friday — rolling into the new week as a bullish catalyst
- Lucid up 17.2% over last 5 days; technicals above all key moving averages
- Options bulls targeting $4 for current week, $4.50 for earnings week
- Rivian earnings Thursday — positive EV sector read-through could lift LCID
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Stock technically overbought; first negative catalyst could cause pullback
The call
- Date said
- Feb 16, 2025
- Deadline
- Feb 21, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $34.80
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $30.60
- Return
- -12.1%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $30.60.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $30.60.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.