LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$27
“Elliot Wave Technicals is projecting for it to be between that 25.49 and 27 in the short term.”@ 4:11 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishElliott Wave technicals project Lucid to trade between $25.49 and $27 in the near term, supported by the stock breaking above the 50-day moving average for two consecutive days for the first time. The analyst expects Q3 production/delivery numbers around October 2-3 to be the catalyst for a further breakout and possibly new analyst ratings. Short interest near all-time highs at 32% creates squeeze potential if a strong Q3 print comes.
Key arguments
- Elliott Wave projecting $25.49 to $27 short-term
- Two consecutive closes above 50-day moving average historically signals 30-35% upside run
- Q3 numbers expected October 2-3, ahead of last year's October 7 release
- Short interest 31.99% near all-time high, shorts overextended
- Q3 report could prompt 2-3 new analyst ratings which historically push stock higher
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A lot of Fed speakers and data this week that could flip market sentiment
- Potential government shutdown could suppress data releases and market moves
The call
- Date said
- Sep 28, 2025
- Deadline
- Oct 5, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.11
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $24.02
- Return
- -0.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $27. Price: $24.02.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $27. Price: $24.02.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.