TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$611
“I believe Tesla should be end of 2025 based on these discounted cash flows conservatively at 611.”@ 14:51 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's discounted cash flow model values shares at $611 fair value end-of-2025 and $11,000 by 2030, with current price deeply discounted versus intrinsic value.
Key arguments
- DCF model uses three revenue streams: core EV/energy, robotaxi fleet, and Optimus humanoid robots.
- Robotaxi assumes 500 in 2025, 10,000 in 2026 scaling to 220M by 2040.
- Optimus ramps to 100,000 units by 2027, 3M by 2030, with consumer pre-orders as kickstart.
- Robotaxi launch in June could force price to fair value by July/August 2025.
- Tesla should be $611 end of 2025 per fair value projection.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Demand skepticism on Optimus scale assumptions.
- Risk discount of 29-32% applied to robotaxi and Optimus streams.
- Delayed robotaxi launch could crash the stock to ~$250 before recovery.
The call
- Date said
- Feb 26, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $290.80
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +54.6%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 50% progress toward target $611. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 50% progress toward target $611. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Jo frames this as his DCF fair value model output with specific number.