TSLABearmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$270
“If we get a correction in September, which could easily happen, then they will be incredibly fearful and we drop to 270.”@ 11:53 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla Q3 is setting a record, the affordable Model Y launches October 1 to offset tax-credit pull-forward, and robo-taxi hitting 5% of free cash flow in April-May 2026 drives the stock to 1,000.
Key arguments
- Kalshi prediction market puts Q3 at roughly 495,000 deliveries, best quarter ever.
- Affordable Model Y launches October 1 at roughly 30,000 dollars, potentially 8x addressable TAM.
- Tesla may raise Model Y price in September to dampen the post-credit cliff.
- Robo-taxi inflection April-May 2026 triggers short squeeze toward 1,000 per share.
- Seasonal correction could take TSLA to 270 as a buying opportunity.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla fans find the stripped-down affordable model lame, but target buyer is price-sensitive mass market.
- Model Y Q4 sales will take a major hit after the tax credit expiration.
- Near-term seasonal correction risk of 20% remains elevated.
The call
- Date said
- Sep 14, 2025
- Timeframe
- September correction scenario
- Price at prediction
- $410.04
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $458.96
- Return
- -11.9%
- Notes
- Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $270. Price: $458.96.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Horizon window passed. Only 0% progress toward target $270. Price: $458.96.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Host presents this as a conditional 'if a correction happens' scenario, hedged with 'could easily happen'.