AMDBullunverifiable
Meet Kevin“that money that was raised is going to get spent on hardware and that's where we believe hardware deserves a rally”
Thesis at the time
BullishKevin notes AMD is benefiting from AI infrastructure spending flowing from hyperscalers and views AMD as part of the broader undervalued hardware trade, though he notes it's not as central to Nvidia's exclusive partnerships.
Key arguments
- Capex raised by companies like Google and SpaceX partly flows to AMD as an ASIC/GPU supplier
- AMD's stock has skyrocketed, benefiting Meta's warrant position, reflecting strong hardware demand
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- SpaceX has an exclusive partnership with Nvidia, limiting how much of that capex flows to AMD
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Goldman Sachs framing these as 'headwinds' rather than bearish calls
- Analysis based on forward-looking depreciation estimates that may not materialize as predicted
- Host acknowledges earnings valuations are 'in line with 10-year average' on forward P/E basis
- Discussion of GPU price appreciation as unsustainable suggests speculative asset valuations
- Commentary focuses on 2027 specifically, implying near-term (12-month) caution rather than long-term bearishness
The call
- Date said
- Sep 22, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $615.52
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Directional bullish statement on hardware broadly including AMD, but no specific price or timeframe.