LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price
$8
“I might be selling I would assume $8 by let's say August. That's probably where I might target which is unfortunate again assuming that it could go to $8 by August.”@ 6:29 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BearishLucid falls 5.5% as stronger-than-expected GDP data (4.3% vs 3.2% forecast) kills January rate-cut odds from 19.9% to 13.3%, and short interest hits a new all-time high (33.98%, 44.28M shares). Institutions are selling with only one buy observed, and algorithmic trading is the only force moving the stock. The host is visibly frustrated and notes that only hitting Q4 targets — expected in ~2 weeks — can reverse the bearish narrative; a miss would cause institutions to abandon the stock.
Key arguments
- New all-time high short interest: 33.98% of float (44.28M shares), shorts adding 101k shares
- Strong GDP (4.3%) reduces rate cut odds, hurting growth stocks including LCID
- Institutions nearly exclusively selling; algorithmic trading is sole upward force
- Rivian's recent run (+$12 to $22) shows EVs CAN rally — Lucid just needs to execute
- If Lucid misses Q4 targets, institutions will exit and shorts will pile on
- Host suggests $8 put by August as personal options strategy (bearish lean)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Year-end institutional rebalancing could force some buying of LCID
- If targets are hit in ~2 weeks, short interest could fall back to ~25%
The call
- Date said
- Dec 23, 2025
- Deadline
- Aug 1, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $11.63
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $7.70
- Return
- +33.8%
- Notes
- Target ≤$8 reached on 2026-04-16. Price: $7.70. Return: +33.8%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$8 reached on 2026-04-16. Price: $7.70. Return: +33.8%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.