TubeRank
TSLABullpending
Curious PejjyCurious Pejjy

Target Price

$420

“Well, the funniest outcome is probably what's going to happen knowing Elon. And that would be kind of taking it private at 420.”

Thesis at the time

Bullish

The panel debates a hypothetical future Tesla-SpaceX merger while highlighting real progress in Tesla's FSD and robotaxi rollout as the core bullish thesis. One speaker says he is actively buying more Tesla shares because of both the autonomy progress and the potential structural benefits to Tesla shareholders if a merger occurs.

Key arguments

  • FSD 14.3.7 shows major real-world improvements, including near-flawless parking and navigating a Costco lot
  • Robotaxi service is scaling meaningfully: shorter wait times, queueing system, and expanded night-time operating hours
  • Elon has voting control of SpaceX and could structure a merger favorable to Tesla shareholders since Tesla investors must approve it
  • Optimus is viewed as a major future revenue driver for Tesla

Counter-arguments acknowledged

  • SpaceX's heavy capital expenditure could eat into combined-company profit margins from Optimus
  • Elon only owns about 20% of Tesla, so the other 80% of shareholders (institutions and retail) must be convinced to approve any merger

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

  • All merger scenarios are hypothetical and speculative
  • Valuation figures ($3T, $6T) are illustrative examples, not predictions
  • Discussion acknowledges need to satisfy 80% of Tesla shareholders who aren't Elon
  • Merger is not confirmed and may never occur
  • Analysis based on future growth potential which is uncertain

The call

Date said
Aug 19, 2026
Current price (live)
$378.90$41.10 below target
Confidence
low
Specificity
specific

How it resolved

Status
pending

Confidence Reasoning

The claim is heavily hedged with 'probably' and 'kind of' and framed as a joking/speculative scenario tied to a potential merger, reducing conviction despite naming a specific price.

Source

If You’re A Tesla Investor DON'T Want A Merger... LISTEN UP!
Said on Aug 19, 2026Open on YouTube ↗
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