LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$26.90
Said $2.69· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“I think going into this upcoming week, like unless these data points are horrifically negative, I don't see any reason for the market to be red... it'll trade between this R2 and this R1. So between that 269 and 255.”@ 7:30 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishSpeaker confirms Lucid supply-chain issues are real (official response from Nick at Lucid acknowledging them) but frames them as short-term and similar to earlier Air production ramp challenges. Shorts were definitively identified as the reason Lucid lagged the market from March 31 – April 15, adding ~75M shares via dark pool. Lucid successfully closed above the 50-day MA, which historically leads to a 30-40% run, and the speaker sees limited downside for the week unless macro data is severely negative.
Key arguments
- Lucid closed above 50-day MA ($244), which historically produces a 30-40% run
- Short suppression of ~75M additional shares via dark pool March 31 – April 15 explains Lucid's underperformance
- Gravity supply-chain issue acknowledged by management, viewed as temporary like the Air ramp challenge
- A US-China trade deal would drive a market boom that overwhelms short selling pressure
- Options open interest at $250 and $3 suggests no extreme short walls this coming week
- Lucid is wedged between 50-day ($244) and 100-day ($263) MAs, with breakout potential
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Confirmed supply-chain problems contradict Q4 earnings praise of supply-chain partners
- Large short interest (29.6% float, 359M shares) remains a significant overhang
The call
- Date said
- Apr 26, 2025
- Deadline
- May 2, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $25
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.30
- Return
- +1.2%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 16% progress toward target $26.9. Price: $25.30.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 16% progress toward target $26.9. Price: $25.30.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.