LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price
$26.60
“I do believe uh going back over here, we should be closing between this R3 and this R2. And most likely it will be hugging right below this R3. So below that 2660 is where I do feel by the end of the week we will be closing.”@ 8:17 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishElliott Wave technicals project Lucid to trade between $25.49 and $27 in the near term, supported by the stock breaking above the 50-day moving average for two consecutive days for the first time. The analyst expects Q3 production/delivery numbers around October 2-3 to be the catalyst for a further breakout and possibly new analyst ratings. Short interest near all-time highs at 32% creates squeeze potential if a strong Q3 print comes.
Key arguments
- Elliott Wave projecting $25.49 to $27 short-term
- Two consecutive closes above 50-day moving average historically signals 30-35% upside run
- Q3 numbers expected October 2-3, ahead of last year's October 7 release
- Short interest 31.99% near all-time high, shorts overextended
- Q3 report could prompt 2-3 new analyst ratings which historically push stock higher
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- A lot of Fed speakers and data this week that could flip market sentiment
- Potential government shutdown could suppress data releases and market moves
The call
- Date said
- Sep 28, 2025
- Deadline
- Oct 3, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $24.11
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $24.77
- Return
- +2.7%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 27% progress toward target $26.6. Price: $24.77.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 27% progress toward target $26.6. Price: $24.77.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.