LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$23.00
Said $2.30· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“this is where you could see kind of back over here for a second maybe trading on the low end of 230 um if not a little bit slow lower than that”@ 6:57 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe upcoming week is packed with macro catalysts (manufacturing data, JOLTS, Fed speakers, non-farm payrolls) and tariff uncertainty that could drive significant volatility for LCID. The 50-day moving average around $2.67 is the key support; if it breaks on two consecutive days, a pullback to the $2.30 range is likely. However, the speaker sees long-term value in Lucid's operational progress and encourages buying the dip for bigger-picture investors.
Key arguments
- 50-day moving average has held as support three times in two weeks, signaling underlying strength
- Options market makers and shorts have financial interest in keeping LCID below $3 given 16K open interest at that strike
- Tariff escalation risk and heavy macro data week creates binary outcome for the stock
- Lucid participating in Washington DC Auto Show and Yorkdale Studio event as positive brand catalysts
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- If 50-day MA breaks on two consecutive days, stock could trade down to around $2.30
- High tariff uncertainty could drag the entire EV sector lower
The call
- Date said
- Feb 2, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $28
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $22.55
- Return
- +19.5%
- Notes
- Target ≤$23 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +19.5%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$23 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +19.5%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.