LCIDBearhit
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$25
Said $2.50· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if Peter just says hey we're going to be demand driven and doesn't give specifics then I would agree with the Bears that we are going to see sub 250”@ 5:34 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishShorts have returned for five consecutive days (574K today) while volume remains low and the stock is essentially flat. LEAP 2025 conference in Riyadh is providing positive visibility for Lucid. The speaker warns that management must guide at least 25,000 production units for 2025 and be specific about Gravity ramp — vague guidance like 'demand-driven' production targets will result in sub-$2.50 stock price. Options bulls targeting $3.50 for earnings week.
Key arguments
- Five consecutive days of short returns — longest streak in 6+ months
- Lucid's LEAP 2025 presence in Riyadh with positive booth and engagement
- Options bulls targeting $3.50 for earnings week
- Utilization 93.5% — shorts are nearly tapped out
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Lucid needs to be specific about Gravity — 'demand-driven' guidance will be punished
- No gravities spotted in recent facility flyovers
The call
- Date said
- Feb 10, 2025
- Deadline
- Feb 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $27.70
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $22.55
- Return
- +18.6%
- Notes
- Target ≤$25 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +18.6%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$25 reached on 2025-02-26. Price: $22.55. Return: +18.6%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.