AMZNBullunverifiable
Stock Moe“Amazon I believe is going to shock the world as they go forward over the next few years and it is going to continue to run it up.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishStock Moe views Amazon as his top pick among the five, citing a healthy pullback from highs and record AWS growth and backlog. He believes Amazon will continue to run higher over the next few years as AWS momentum builds.
Key arguments
- AWS growth best in 18 quarters at 37%, generating $496 billion
- AWS backlog nearing half a trillion dollars, three times annual AWS revenue
- Revenue hit $200 billion for the first time, up 20%
- Stock down about 9.7% from 52-week high, offering a discount
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Free cash flow over the last 12 months is negative
- Reported EPS of $5.75 includes a $53 billion paper gain on the Anthropic stake, with real operating EPS closer to $1.97
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Some people calling for 10-20% market correction (creator not in that camp yet)
- Short-term dips happen frequently due to geopolitical events
- Treasury yields above 4.5% make bonds more attractive relative to stocks
- Valuation metrics show some overpricing (Schiller CAPE at 42.4 vs record 44.2)
- Creator explicitly excludes Tesla (175x forward earnings), Apple (only 4% upside), and Palantir (90x forward earnings) as poor entry points
- Market breadth improving but creator acknowledges valuation concerns
The call
- Date said
- Aug 19, 2026
- Timeframe
- over the next few years
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses certainty language ('going to') and personal conviction, but gives no specific price target, and 'I believe' softens it somewhat.
Source
BUYING EVERY SHARE I CAN‼️...The 5 Best Stocks To Buy Now
Said on Aug 19, 2026Open on YouTube ↗