TSLABullpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$400
“I think we'll probably hang out at 400 for a few days, but I think ultimately we'll blow through 400 if we can get some robo taxes in the road.”
Thesis at the time
BullishRandy notes a dramatic shift toward positive sentiment on Tesla and Elon Musk, citing strong FSD attach rates that beat Morgan Stanley's expectations. He believes the stock could push past the $400 analyst target if robotaxi scaling continues to show tangible progress.
Key arguments
- FSD attach rate on North American deliveries hit 55%, well above Morgan Stanley's 25-30% expectation
- Investors remain constructive on Tesla's physical AI opportunity and long-term thesis
- Public opinion on Tesla and Elon Musk has turned overwhelmingly positive recently
- Robotaxi flywheel (more vehicles, higher density, better unit economics) is seen as the key driver for further stock conviction
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Analysts want clearer proof robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus production milestones
- Weaker gross margins, higher R&D spending, and extended free cash flow burn are sharpening investor focus on measurable progress
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Morgan Stanley maintains a 'hold' rating despite $400 price target
- Stronger conviction requires clearer proof that Robotaxi is scaling
- More tangible optimistic milestones needed to move stock higher
- Weaker gross margins and higher R&D spending mentioned as concerns
- Poll-based sentiment analysis reflects retail investor opinion, not fundamental analysis
The call
- Date said
- Aug 11, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$21.10 below target
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
The prediction is explicitly conditional on robotaxi scaling ('if we can get some robo taxes in the road') and framed with hedging language ('I think'), lowering confidence despite the specific $400 number.
Source
Tesla Stock Up; Amazing New Product Revealed
Said on Aug 11, 2026Open on YouTube ↗