TSLABullunverifiable
Curious Pejjy“I was at 55% I'm today rather at 75%”@ 13:18 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe speaker believes Tesla will be acquired by SpaceX at a premium, likely announced in June 2026 after SpaceX's IPO. This would create massive upward pressure on Tesla stock through index inclusion events and arbitrage trading.
Key arguments
- SpaceX IPO expected June 9th 2026 with NASDAQ 100 inclusion after 15 trading days
- Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement expected in 3-week window after IPO
- Merger would create locked-step price movement and arbitrage opportunities
- Two major index inclusion events would drive massive buying pressure
- Tesla shareholders should receive premium for giving up voting power
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Other companies like Nvidia, Google, or Apple could make competing offers for Tesla
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Creator explicitly states 'I know nothing' and describes this as 'my best theory'
- Acknowledges having alternative plans (B, C, D) if primary thesis doesn't materialize
- Admits uncertainty about final IPO pricing and valuation
- Speculative timing based on numerology ('69' and 'stars aligned')
- Lockup period details unknown and could significantly impact float dynamics
- Final IPO numbers not yet confirmed
- Index inclusion timing dependent on SEC approval and regulatory processes
- Merger with Tesla is speculative and not confirmed in transcript
The call
- Date said
- Apr 16, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $388.90
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- vague
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker increased confidence from 55% to 75% and uses definitive language about the merger scenario