LCIDBullmiss
Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$40
Said $4· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“if they actually do come out and give very good future guidance I could see this easily agree with the bulls for it to be roughly around that $4 range”
Thesis at the time
BullishAnalysts have raised EPS estimates from -$0.26 to -$0.255 and revenue from $213.8M to $214.2M ahead of Q4 earnings, signaling modest optimism. The speaker is cautiously optimistic but emphasizes that future guidance — specifically production targets and Gravity details — is what will truly move the stock, as it has historically been the weak point for Lucid in past earnings.
Key arguments
- Analysts raised EPS and revenue estimates ahead of Q4, signaling growing optimism
- Implied earnings move of 15.6% signals high volatility expected
- Options bulls targeting $3.50-$4 range for the week of earnings
- Future guidance on production and Gravity is the make-or-break factor
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- 90% of prior earnings historically resulted in stock decline due to vague future guidance
- Shorts increasing heading into earnings
The call
- Date said
- Feb 25, 2025
- Deadline
- Feb 28, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $26.10
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $22.20
- Return
- -14.9%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $22.20.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $40. Price: $22.20.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.