SPYBullunverifiable
Michael Tyler“we could be looking at 30 plus percent upside throughout you know, the next year or so.”@ 6:53 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
BullishAgrees with Tom Lee that once the market digests Fed-chair transition and midterm noise, the US enters an 18-24 month rally that could be one of the best in a lifetime. The S&P is up 30%+ over the next year. Midterm-year turbulence through November 2026 is the buying opportunity.
Key arguments
- S&P just printed 12 consecutive green days; velocity suggests 30%+ upside over the next year
- Retail investors de-risked during the Iran war and are now re-entering
- US multiple should re-rate higher: supply-chain resilience exposed, innovation concentrated in US
- Historical midterm-cycle + post-aggressive-rally precedent both point up
- Earnings estimates higher; consumer in better shape than headlines imply (Tom Lee)
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- New Fed chair (Kevin Walsh) transition could trigger a test drawdown
- Summer chop through midterms — 'don't expect anything good until November 3rd'
- Dispersion is high: headline index less attractive than specific sectors/names
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Headline S&P level doesn't look as attractive as individual opportunities
- Expect policy and Fed-chair turbulence in 2026 before the real rally
- Midterm-year volatility through November
The call
- Date said
- Apr 21, 2026
- Timeframe
- next year or so
- Deadline
- Apr 21, 2027
- Price at prediction
- $710.14
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
'Could be looking at' is hedged but backed by a specific magnitude and the 12-day streak as momentum evidence, plus corroborating Tom Lee reference.