TSLABullmiss
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$770
“My number for Tesla end of year, the fair future value based on my discounted cash flow models is 770 for 2025.”@ 2:56 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's two near-term catalysts (June robotaxi launch, Model Q) can drive short-term outperformance while DCF fair value supports $770 end-2025 and $11,700 by 2030.
Key arguments
- DCF fair value of $770 for 2025 and $11,700 for 2030.
- Tesla has unfair moat on robotaxi (only Chinese rivals, geopolitically blocked in West).
- No real competitor on Optimus due to software/app ecosystem needs.
- Aggressive Austin robotaxi launch undercutting Uber could double the stock by July/August.
- Ark price target $5,000; Saser ~$10,000 support the long-term thesis.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Robotaxi launch could be delayed past June.
- Wall Street may not react positively if launch is weak.
- Options are time-sensitive; wrong timing destroys positions.
The call
- Date said
- Feb 17, 2025
- Timeframe
- end of 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $354.11
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $449.72
- Return
- +27.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $770. Price: $449.72.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $770. Price: $449.72.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Jo frames this as his DCF fair-value price target.